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[제22대 총선] 대전서구갑 국회의원선거 여론조사

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김정환 기자
기사입력 2024-01-17

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오는 4월 10일 실시하는 제22대 국회의원 선거를 앞두고 대전시 서구갑 주민을 대상으로 여론조사를 실시한 결과 더불어민주당 예비후보 중에서는 장종태 전 대전시서구청장이, 국민의힘 예비후보 중에서는 조수연 현 국민의힘 대전서구갑 당협위원장이 높은 지지를 받고 있는 것으로 나타났다.

 

여야 후보 대결에서는 더불어민주당 장종태와 국민의힘 조수연이 오차범위 안에서 경합을 보였고, 정당지지도는 더불어민주당과 국민의힘이 오차범위 안에서 접전으로 조사됐다. 

 

이번 조사는 지역 언론사 뉴스티앤티, 브레이크뉴스, 데일리한국충청, 국제뉴스 대전세종충남본부가 여론조사 전문기관 (주)코리아정보리서치에 의뢰해 지난 12~14일 대전시 서구갑 선거구 거주 만 18세 이상 남녀 503명을 대상으로 실시했다.

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1) 더불어민주당 국회의원 후보 적합도

 

조사 결과, 차기 더불어민주당 국회의원 후보 적합도는 장종태  (전) 민선6기,7기 대전광역시 서구청장 30.6%로 유지곤  (현) 더불어민주당 중앙당 보건의료특별위원회 부위원장(13.3%), 이용수 (전) 박병석 국회의원 보좌관(10.8%)를 2배 이상 크게 앞서는 것으로 나타났다. 기타인물은 5.2%, 없음 23.6%, 모름은 16.5%다.

 

후보별 분석에서는 장종태는 남성과 여성, 모든 연령층, 모든 지역에서 23.4%~37.1%의 지지율을 보이며  같은 당 두 후보보다 우세했다. 특히 장종태는 남성층, 30대와 60대, 제2선거구에서 적합도가 높게 나타났다. 다만 40대는 장종태 23.4%, 유지곤 18.6%로 조사돼 두 후보간 지지율이 4.8%p 차로 오차범위(±4.4%p) 안에서 접전을 보였다.

 

유지곤은 40대(18.6%)와 70대 이상(18.5%), 제3선거구(15.1%)에서, 이용수는 18세이상 20대(19.5%)와 제2선거구(14.2%)에서 각각 지지율이 높게 나타났다.

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2) 국민의힘 국회의원 후보 적합도

 

차기 국민의힘 국회의원 후보 적합도는 조수연  (현) 국민의힘 당협위원장(대전 서구갑) 31.1%로 김경석 (전) 국민의힘 대전시당 대변인(11.6%), 김용경 (현) 세종대 겸임교수(6%)을 크게 앞서는 것으로 나타났다. 기타인물은 5.2%, 없음 31.3%, 모름은 14.8%다.

 

후보별 분석에서는 조수연은 남성과 여성, 모든 연령층, 모든 지역에서 24.6%~39%의 지지율을 보이며 같은 당 두 후보보다 우세했다. 특히 조수연은 남성층, 40대와 60대, 제1·3선거구에서 적합도가 높게 나타났다.

 

김경석은 여성층(13.4%), 60대(15.5%)와 70대(16.5%), 제2선거구(16%)에서, 김용경은 18세이상 20대(10.8%), 제2선거구(9.2%)에서 각각 지지율이 높았다.

 

3) 여야 국회의원 후보 적합도

 

여야 후보들 중 차기 서구갑 국회의원으로 누가 가장 적합한가에 대해서는 더불어민주당 장종태(28%)가 국민의힘 조수연(24.6%)을 3.4%p 차로 오차범위(±4.4%p) 안에서 조금 앞서는 것으로 조사됐다.

 

이어 더불어민주당 유지곤(8.1%), 국민의힘 김경석(7.1%), 더불어민주당 이용수(7%), 국민의힘 김용경(6%) 순이며 기타(3.3%), 없음(7.2%), 모름(8.7%)이다.

 

성별 분석에서는 남성층은 차기 국회의원으로 더불어민주당 장종태(31.4%)를 국민의힘 조수연(22%)보다 더 선호하는 것으로 나타났다. 여성층에서는 조수연(27%)이 장종태(24.7%)를 2.3%p 차로 오차범위(±4.4%p) 안에서 조금 앞섰다.

 

연령별 분석에서 는 장종태는 18세이상 20대, 30대, 50대에서 30%이상 지지를 받으며 조수연보다 적합도가 12%p 이상 높게 나타났다.

 

조수연은 60대에서만 38.5%를 보이며 장종태를 15.2%p 앞섰다.

 

40대(장종태 20.8%, 조수연 27.2%, 6.4%p차)와 70대(장종태 23.2%, 조수연 30.2%, 7%p차)에서는 두 후보가 오차범위(±4.4%p) 안에서 접전으로 나타났다.

 

지역별 분석에서는 두 후보가 오차범위 내에서 경합을 보였다.

 

제1선거구(복수동, 도마1동, 도마2동, 정림동)에서는 장종태(24.5%) 조수연(29%)으로, 국민의힘 조수연이 4.5%p, 제2선거구(변동, 괴정동, 가장동, 내동)에서는 장종태(30.2%) 조수연(21.9%)으로, 더불어민주당 장종태가 8.3%p, 제3선거구(가수원동, 도안동, 관저1동, 관저2동, 기성동)에서는 장종태(28.9%) 조수연(23.2%)로 더불어민주당 장종태가 5.7%p 높게 나타났다.

 

지지정당별 분석에서 차기 서구갑 국회의원 적합도는 더불어민주당 지지층 (장종태 46.4%, 조수연 4.3%), 국민의힘 지지층 (조수연 50.7%, 장종태 8.4%), 이 외 정의당(장종태 47.7%,  조수연 21.9%) 창당예정신당(장종태 27.2%,  조수연 20.3%) 기타정당(장종태 25.2%, 조수연 16.8%) 없음(장종태 28.5%, 조수연 11.2%), 모름(장종태 0%, 조수연 43.4%)로 응답했다.

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4) 정당지지도

 

이번 조사에서 대전시 서구갑의 정당지지도는 더불어민주당 38.9% 국민의힘 36.3%로, 두 정당간 지지도 차(2.6%p)가 오차범위(±4.4%p) 안에서 접전으로 나타났다. 이어 정의당(2.6%), 창당예정신당(6.9%), 기타정당(4.6%) 순이며 지지정당 없음은 9%, 모름은 1.7%다.

 

남성층은 더불어민주당 39.6% 국민의힘 31.9%로, 오차범위(±4.4%p) 안에서 더불어민주당을 조금 더(7.7%p) 지지하는 것으로 나타났으며, 여성층은 더불어민주당 38.3% 국민의힘 40.5%로, 오차범위(±4.4%p) 안에서 국민의힘을 조금 더(2.2%p) 지지하는 것으로 분석됐다.

 

연령별로는 18세이상 20대, 30대, 50대는 더불어민주당 지지율이 높았고, 60대, 70세 이상층은 국민의힘 지지자가 더 많았다.

 

40대에서는 더불어민주당 지지율이 국민의힘을 5.9%p 앞서며 오차범위 안에서 조금 더 높게 나타났다.

 

정당지지도는 서구갑 모든 지역에서 두 정당이 오차범위(±4.4%p) 내에서 경합을 보였다.

 

제1선거구는 더불어민주당 35.8%, 국민의힘 36.8%로 국민의힘이 1%p, 제2선거구는 더불어민주당 41.4%, 국민의힘 37.5%로 더불어민주당이 3.9%p , 제3선거구는 더불어민주당 39.5%, 국민의힘 35.2%로 더불어민주당이 4.3%p 높았다.

 

지지정당별 차기 국회의원 후보 적합도 조사결과에서 더불어민주당 차기 국회의원 후보 적합도 조사결과 더불어민주당 지지층에서는 장종태가 지지율 41.1%로 차기 더불어민주당 국회의원 후보로 가장 적합하다는 평을 받았다. 이어 유지곤 18.8%, 이용수 13.3% 순이다.

 

지지정당이 없음 응답층에서는 장종태 33.1%, 유지곤 6.2%, 이용수 2.9% 순으로 조사됐다.

 

국민의힘 차기 국회의원 후보 적합도 조사결과 국민의힘 지지층에서는 조수연이 지지율 54.9%로 차기 국민의힘 국회의원 후보로 가장 적합하다는 평을 받았다. 이어 김경석 17.9%, 김용경 8% 순이다.

 

지지정당 없음 응답층에서는 조수연 18.8%, 김경석 4.6%, 김용경 1.8% 순으로 나타났다.

 

한편, 이번 조사는 구조화된 설문지를 이용한 전화자동응답 방식(ARS)으로, 무선번호(통신사 제공) 73%와 유선번호(RDD) 27%로 실시됐다. 표본오차는 95% 신뢰수준에서 ±4.4%p, 전체 응답률은 1.0%다. 통계보정은 2023년 12월 말 행정안전부 발표 주민등록 인구 기준 성·연령·지역별 셀가중값을 부여했다. 보다 자세한 내용은 중앙선거여론조사심의위원회 (http://www.nesdc.go.kr) 여론조사결과 등록현황을 참고하면 된다.

 

*아래는 위 기사를 '구글 번역'으로 번역한 영문 기사의 [전문]입니다. '구글번역'은 이해도를 높이기를 위해 노력하고 있습니다. 영문 번역에 오류가 있을 수 있음을 전제로 합니다.<*The following is [the full text] of the English article translated by 'Google Translate'. 'Google Translate' is working hard to improve understanding. It is assumed that there may be errors in the English translation.>

 

[22nd General Election] Daejeon Seo-gu Gap National Assembly Election Opinion Poll

 

Ahead of the 22nd National Assembly election to be held on April 10, an opinion poll was conducted on residents of Seo-gu-gap, Daejeon. As a result, among the preliminary candidates for the Democratic Party of Korea, Jang Jong-tae, former mayor of Seo-gu District of Daejeon, and Jo Soo-yeon, the current People Power Party candidate, were among the prospective candidates for the People Power Party. It was revealed that the chairman of the Daejeon Seo-gu Gap Party Council is receiving high support.

 

In the competition between the ruling and opposition parties, Jang Jong-tae of the Democratic Party of Korea and Jo Soo-yeon of the People's Power Party competed within the margin of error, and in terms of party support, the Democratic Party of Korea and the People's Power Party were found to be in a close race within the margin of error.

 

This survey was conducted by local media outlets News T&T, Break News, Daily Korea Chungcheong, and Kukje News Daejeon Sejong Chungnam Headquarters, and commissioned Korea Information Research Co., Ltd., a public opinion research agency, to survey men and women aged 18 or older living in the West Gap constituency of Daejeon from the 12th to the 14th. It was conducted on 503 people.

 

1) Suitability of the Democratic Party of Korea’s National Assembly candidate

 

As a result of the survey, the suitability of the next Democratic Party National Assembly candidate is Jang Jong-tae (former) 6th and 7th popularly elected head of Daejeon Metropolitan City's Seo-gu Office at 30.6%, Yoo Ji-gon (current) Vice Chairman of the Health and Medical Special Committee of the Central Party of the Democratic Party of Korea (13.3%), and Lee Yong-soo (former) National Assembly member Park Byeong-seok. It was found to be more than twice that of aides (10.8%). 5.2% said they were other people, 23.6% said none, and 16.5% did not know.

 

In the analysis by candidate, Jang Jong-tae was superior to the two candidates of the same party, showing an approval rating of 23.4% to 37.1% for men and women, all age groups, and all regions. In particular, Jang Jong-tae showed high suitability among men, those in their 30s and 60s, and the 2nd constituency. However, among those in their 40s, Jong-tae Jang had 23.4% and Yoo Ji-gon had 18.6%, showing a close race between the two candidates with an approval rating of 4.8 percentage points, within the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points).

 

Yoo Ji-gon is in his 40s (18.6%), 70s and older (18.5%), and in the 3rd constituency (15.1%).

Lee Yong-soo had high approval ratings in those in their 20s over the age of 18 (19.5%) and in the 2nd constituency (14.2%).

 

2) People Power Party National Assembly candidate suitability

 

The suitability of the next People Power National Assembly candidate is Su-yeon Cho (current), People Power Party Council Chairman (Daejeon Seo-gu-gap), 31.1%, Kim Gyeong-seok (former) People Power Party Spokesperson in Daejeon City Party (11.6%), and Kim Yong-gyeong (current) Adjunct Professor at Sejong University (6%). ) was found to be significantly ahead of 5.2% said they were other people, 31.3% said none, and 14.8% did not know.

 

In the analysis by candidate, Jo Soo-yeon was superior to the two candidates from the same party, showing an approval rating of 24.6% to 39% across men and women, all age groups, and all regions. In particular, Jo Soo-yeon showed high suitability among the male population, those in their 40s and 60s, and the 1st and 3rd constituencies.

 

Kim Gyeong-seok was elected among women (13.4%), those in their 60s (15.5%) and 70s (16.5%), and the 2nd constituency (16%), while Kim Yong-kyung was elected among those in their 20s over 18 (10.8%), and the 2nd constituency (9.2%). Each had a high approval rating.

 

3) Suitability of the ruling and opposition party National Assembly candidates

 

Regarding who is most suitable to be the next member of the West Gap National Assembly among the ruling and opposition parties, it was found that Jang Jong-tae of the Democratic Party of Korea (28%) was slightly ahead of Jo Su-yeon of the People Power Party (24.6%) by 3.4 percentage points, within the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points).

 

This is followed by Yoo Ji-gon of the Democratic Party of Korea (8.1%), Kim Kyung-seok of the People's Power Party (7.1%), Lee Yong-soo of the Democratic Party of Korea (7%), and Kim Yong-gyeong of the People's Power Party (6%), followed by other (3.3%), none (7.2%), and do not know ( 8.7%).

 

Gender analysis showed that men preferred Jang Jong-tae (31.4%) of the Democratic Party of Korea as the next member of the National Assembly more than Jo Soo-yeon (22%) of the People Power Party. In the female segment, Jo Soo-yeon (27%) slightly ahead of Jang Jong-tae (24.7%) by 2.3 percentage points, within the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points).

 

In the analysis by age, Jong-tae Jang received more than 30% support from those in their 20s, 30s, and 50s over the age of 18, and his suitability was more than 12% points higher than that of Soo-yeon Jo.

 

Jo Soo-yeon showed 38.5% in the 60s alone, ahead of Jang Jong-tae by 15.2 percentage points.

 

In the 40s (Jong-tae Jang 20.8%, Jo Soo-yeon 27.2%, 6.4% point difference) and 70s (Jang Jong-tae 23.2%, Jo Soo-yeon 30.2%, 7% point difference), the two candidates were in a close race within the margin of error (±4.4%p).

 

In regional analysis, the two candidates competed within the margin of error.

 

In the 1st constituency (Boksu-dong, Doma 1-dong, Doma 2-dong, Jeongnim-dong), Jang Jong-tae (24.5%) and Soo-yeon Jo (29%), People Power Party's Su-yeon Soo won 4.5% points, and in the 2nd constituency (Byeon-dong, Goejeong-dong, Gajeong-dong, Nae-dong) In the 3rd constituency (Gasuwon-dong, Doan-dong, Gwanjeo 1-dong, Gwanjeo 2-dong, Giseong-dong), Jang Jong-tae of the Democratic Party of Korea won 8.3% points, with Jang Jong-tae (30.2%) and Jo Soo-yeon (21.9%).

), Jang Jong-tae (28.9%) and Su-yeon Jo (23.2%), with Jang Jong-tae of the Democratic Party of Korea 5.7% points higher.

 

In the analysis by political party support, the suitability of the next Seo-gu National Assembly member is the Democratic Party supporters (46.4% for Jang Jong-tae, 4.3% for Su-yeon Cho), the supporters of the People Power Party (50.7% for Soo-yeon Cho, 8.4% for Jang Jong-tae), and the Justice Party (47.7% for Jang Jong-tae, 21.9% for Su-yeon Cho). Respondents responded with a new political party (27.2% Jang Jong-tae, 20.3% Jo Soo-yeon), other political parties (25.2% Jang Jong-tae, 16.8% Jo Soo-yeon), none (28.5% Jang Jong-tae, 11.2% Jo Soo-yeon), and don't know (0% Jang Jong-tae, 43.4% Jo Soo-yeon).

 

4) Political party support map

 

In this survey, the approval rating for political parties in Seo-gu, Daejeon City was 38.9% for the Democratic Party of Korea and 36.3% for the People Power Party, with the difference in approval rating (2.6%p) between the two parties showing a close race within the margin of error (±4.4%p). This is followed by the Justice Party (2.6%), the New Political Party (6.9%), and other political parties (4.6%). 9% do not support a political party and 1.7% do not know.

 

The male base was found to support the Democratic Party of Korea slightly more (7.7%p), with 39.6% for the Democratic Party of Korea and 31.9% for the People Power Party, within the margin of error (±4.4%p).

The female base was analyzed to support the People Power Party a little more (2.2%p), with 38.3% for the Democratic Party of Korea and 40.5% for the People Power Party, within the margin of error (±4.4%p).

 

By age, those in their 20s, 30s, and 50s over 18 had high approval ratings for the Democratic Party of Korea, while those in their 60s and 70s and over had more supporters of the People Power Party.

 

Among those in their 40s, the approval rating for the Democratic Party of Korea was slightly higher, within the margin of error, ahead of the People Power Party by 5.9 percentage points.

 

In terms of political party support, the two parties competed within the margin of error (±4.4%p) in all Western regions.

 

In the 1st constituency, the Democratic Party of Korea has 35.8% and the People Power Party has 36.8%, with the People Power Party leading by 1 percentage point.

In the 2nd constituency, the Democratic Party of Korea was 41.4% and the People Power Party was 37.5%, which was 3.9 percentage points higher than the Democratic Party of Korea. In the 3rd constituency, the Democratic Party of Korea was 39.5% higher and the People Power Party was 35.2%, which was 4.3 percentage points higher than the Democratic Party of Korea.

 

According to the results of a survey on the suitability of candidates for the next National Assembly member of the Democratic Party of Korea, Jang Jong-tae was evaluated as the most suitable candidate for the next National Assembly member of the Democratic Party of Korea with an approval rating of 41.1% among the supporters of the Democratic Party of Korea. This is followed by Yoo Ji-gon with 18.8% and Lee Yong-soo with 13.3%.

 

Among respondents who did not support a political party, Jong-tae Jang was 33.1%, Yoo Ji-gon was 6.2%, and Lee Yong-soo was 2.9%.

 

According to a survey on the suitability of the People Power Party's next National Assembly candidate, Jo Soo-yeon was evaluated by the People Power Party's supporters as the most suitable candidate for the next People Power National Assembly member, with an approval rating of 54.9%. This is followed by Kim Gyeong-seok with 17.9% and Kim Yong-kyung with 8%.

 

Among those who did not support a political party, Jo Soo-yeon was ranked at 18.8%, Kim Gyeong-seok at 4.6%, and Kim Yong-kyung at 1.8%.

 

Meanwhile, this survey was conducted using an automated telephone response system (ARS) using a structured questionnaire, with 73% using wireless numbers (provided by telecommunication companies) and 27% using landline numbers (RDD). The sampling error is ±4.4%p at the 95% confidence level, and the overall response rate is 1.0%. Statistical correction gave cell weights by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population announced by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety at the end of December 2023. For more detailed information, please refer to the registration status of public opinion poll results at the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee (http://www.nesdc.go.kr).

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